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 Risk
of Malaria Transmission
Malaria is caused by a parasite that
develops to maturity inside certain species of mosquitoes.
When the mosquitoes bite, they transmit the parasite.
If global temperatures climb, the risk of malaria may climb
with them. The sensitivity of malaria to temperature change
has been noted in some highland regions in Africa, where El
Niño-associated warming and increases in rainfall have
triggered epidemics. Warmer temperatures reduce the time it
takes for the malaria-causing parasite to develop to maturity.
This increases the odds that a mosquito will pass the mature
parasite along to a new host before the mosquito dies.
Notice that the map shows a dramatic increase in conditions
conducive to malaria transmission in Europe and the eastern
United States. When considering a projection like this one,
it’s important to understand the researchers’ assumptions.
In this projection, researchers chose not to take into account
human efforts to reduce the mosquito population and combat
the disease. This map shows how changes in the natural world
would allow transmission of malaria if there were no human-imposed
constraints on transmission.
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Risk
of Malaria Transmission
- This
map displays the projected risk of malaria
transmission in the year 2020, compared
with the average risk in the years 1961
to 1990. This projection assumes a global
temperature increase of 2ºF and no human
efforts to contain the spread of malaria.
Source: Pim Martens, Maastricht University
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One technique used in scientific
research is asking the question: “What if?
. . .” In this case, researchers asked: “What
if global temperature increased by 2ºF, and people
didn’t do anything to combat malaria?”
Attempting to answer this question through computer
modeling helps researchers determine what areas
are prone to epidemics, why the risk of malaria
increases in some areas, and how vulnerable communities
can be protected.
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glossary
terms
